Daily Snapshot [February 26, 2019] – FX, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500

February 26, 2019Market review and metrics for Forex, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500. Pivot points, Support, Resistance & Fibonacci Reversal levels; Chart of Interest. {updated 5PM EST }

FX Performance (Strongest to Weakest)
Strongest Weakest
GBP JPY EUR AUD CAD NZD CHF USD
Best Performer Worst Performer
GBPUSD EURGBP
  • Market performance (DAILY)

    Market Performance (click to enlarge)

Market Comments
Forex The Great British Pound surged as PM Theresa May announced that there would be three different parliamentary votes regarding Brexit. First will be another vote on the Brexit withdrawal deal slated to be held no later than March 12. If this fails then the second vote will be on “no-deal” Brexit scheduled for March 13. If both fail then the last vote for a delay will take place on March 14. All in all the days preceding the Ides of March look fraught with volatility.

Citing “conflicting signals” FED chair Powell reinforced the growing notion that the FOMC has moved out of its tightening phase and is on hold for the foreseeable future. This dovish tilt sent yields and USD lower.

S&P500 S&P500 was marginally lower as the rally seems to have run out of steam consolidating just below moderate resistance at 2818.
Oil Crude oil prices rose as OPEC intimated that they would stick with production cuts in spite of President Trump’s opposition to that plan.
  • Chart of Interest – GBPUSD
    The price action over the past few weeks appears to be carving out an “inverse head & shoulder” technical pattern. For this to come to fruition, a clear breach of the neckline which comes in around 1.33 would be needed. A move to 1.3480 should follow in short order before 1.3720 comes into play. Clearly Brexit machinations will exert influence on price action but the fact that the “no deal” Brexit option has lost support should favor a higher GBP in the short term.

    GBPUSD (click to enlarge)

  • Pivot Points & Fibonacci Retracement Levels
    A technical analysis indicator used to try and determine the short-term trend of the market. The pivot point is the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading period. If the market on the following period trades above the pivot point it is thought to be exhibiting bullish sentiment, whereas trading below the pivot point is seen as bearish. The Fibonacci retracement is the potential reversal of a financial instrument’s original move in price.

    Market Metrics (click to enlarge)

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Daily Snapshot [August 17, 2018] – FX, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500

August 17, 2018 – Market review and metrics for Forex, Oil, T-Note, Bund and S&P500

Last trading day of the week ends on a risk-on mode as commodity based currencies (CAD, NZD, AUD) were higher while USD was the weakest performer.

FX Strength

Canadian July CPI posted the largest m/m reading since 2011 which promptly saw the Loonie surge across the board. The “core” numbers though met market estimates which would seem to suggest that volatility in energy prices might have contributed to the surprise. That said, market odds for a rate hike jumped from the low 20% to the low 30% area. Clearly the market would like a few more data points to see if this was an outlier or a nascent sign of an uptick in inflation. If it is the latter then upcoming BOC’s monetary policy decision(s) would become more of an event as they juggle the need to manage inflationary forces with concerns about NAFTA negotiations.

Market Metrics

US equity markets ended the day higher apparently choosing to focus on the resumption of US-China trade talks and ignoring, for the time being, the simmering issues in Turkey that are evoking memories of past emerging market crises. A quick use of the “google machine” would reveal that these local flash points have invariably had an effect on a global scale and it has not been pleasant. (maybe this time it’s different !?)

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Daily Snapshot [August 16, 2018] – FX, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500

August 16, 2018 – Market review and metrics for Forex, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500. {updated EOD}

FX Strength

The S&P500 staged an impressive rebound, erasing most of yesterday’s decline, on the heels of better than expected Walmart earnings and, perhaps more importantly, optimism that renewal of US – China trade talks might yield a mutually beneficial outcome. Antipodean currencies were the prime beneficiaries while CHF was the laggard as risk appetite came to the fore. Oil prices stabilized but worries about global economic slowdown persist. All in all it seems like the “calm before the storm” given that the issues confronting the global economy are varied and complicated and would require skillful navigation by all involved to bring about a successful resolution.

Market Metrics

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