Daily Snapshot [August 15, 2018] – FX, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500

August 15, 2018 – Market review and metrics for Forex, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500. {updated EOD}

USD strengthened initially as worries about slowing Chinese growth, Turkish uncertainty, and upbeat domestic retail sales gave it a bid, albeit one with a safe-haven tinge. As the “FX day” progressed  this reversed as the downturn in equity markets worldwide, especially in the emerging market sector, saw investors abandon the US unit to seek refuge in traditional safe haven currencies, namely JPY & CHF.

Oil futures fell sharply after weekly US crude stockpiles data rose more than expected which the market interpreted as a harbinger of weaker global economic growth. This propelled the CAD to “win” the title of the worst FX performer of the day.

Market Metrics

EUR was on the back foot early on concerns over Erdogan’s economic policies and his apparent eagerness to engage the US on trade disputes. The resultant effect that such a posture could have on the European banking system saw the common currency plumbing depths not seen in 2018 as the NY session began. It staged a rebound on news that Qatar pledged to invest $15 billion in Turkey, a move seen to be supportive to the banking system.  The bond markets seemed unimpressed as flight to safety saw German Bund yields hit their lowest levels in over a month. Historically, these type of events DO NOT “fix” themselves this quickly. Stay tuned !

FX Strength

The Yuan’s ongoing slide was a reflection of disappointing economic data that has characterized Chinese growth recently and has stoked speculation that the PBOC would intervene to stem its currency from declining further. The cause for anxiety lies in the fact that a precipitous drop could cause global liquidity issues.

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Daily Snapshot [August 14, 2018] – FX, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500

August 14, 2018 – Market review and metrics for Forex, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500. {updated EOD}

Euro ended the day on the defensive as concerns about Turkey, specifically the effects on European banks, weighed on the markets. Antipodean currencies (AUD & NZD) were also lower as worries about anemic Chinese growth abound. GBP resumed its downward slide on fears that a palatable deal would not be reached in the Brexit saga. The above mentioned factors and the reality that the FED is the only major central bank firmly committed to a tightening policy continue to buoy the USD.

Market Metrics

FX Strength

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Daily Snapshot – August 10, 2018: FX, Oil, T-Note, Bund, S&P500

YEN was the best performer followed closely by USD while the EUR and AUD were the weakest performers of the day.

FX Strength

Pivot Points

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